NASA has significantly reduced the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032. Just days ago, scientists estimated a 3.1% chance of impact. However, new data has brought that risk down to 1.5%. Experts predict that as they gather more information, the probability will eventually drop to zero.
Understanding Asteroid YR4 and Its Impact
Asteroid YR4 measures approximately 180 feet (55 meters) in diameter, making it comparable in height to the Leaning Tower of Pisa. If it were to collide with Earth, it could unleash eight megatons of energy, more than 500 times the force of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
Instagram | wealth | Asteroid YR4 could release eight megatons of energy in a collision, over 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.
This impact would be catastrophic for a major city but would not pose a threat to global civilization. Although there is an extremely small chance that YR4 could hit the Moon, it is much more likely to pass safely by both celestial bodies.
How Scientists Detected Asteroid YR4
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile first recorded YR4 on December 27, 2024. By January, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) determined that YR4 had more than a 1% chance of colliding with Earth. This probability led scientists to monitor its trajectory closely.
Due to the potential risk, YR4 was classified as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. This ranking is reserved for asteroids that could cause localized destruction but are expected to be downgraded to Level 0 once their path is confirmed as non-threatening.
NASA's Response and Revised Predictions
NASA's latest assessment on February 19 dramatically lowered the impact probability. As astronomers gather more data, they anticipate ruling out any risk of collision. The agency continues to track YR4’s orbit using advanced telescopes and global monitoring systems.
In a bid to refine predictions further, an international team of scientists has been granted emergency access to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). This cutting-edge observatory will provide detailed insights into YR4’s movement, helping experts confirm whether it poses any real danger.
How Scientists Track Asteroids
Image by Adobe express Ai | Scientists use powerful tools to track asteroids.
NASA and other space agencies rely on multiple tools to monitor near-Earth objects:
1. Ground-Based Telescopes – Systems like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS continuously scan the sky for potential threats.
2. Radar Imaging – Deep-space radar helps measure an asteroid's size, shape, and speed.
3. Space Telescopes – Instruments like Hubble and James Webb provide detailed observations from orbit.
4. Computer Simulations – Advanced models predict how gravity and planetary movements influence asteroid paths.
Should We Worry About Future Asteroids?
Asteroid YR4 will likely miss Earth, but the possibility of future threats still exists. NASA and other space agencies consistently enhance early detection systems, ensuring they identify potentially hazardous asteroids long before they pose a risk.
If a large asteroid ever presents a real danger, scientists have suggested deflection strategies. These include altering its course using kinetic impactors or leveraging gravitational forces to shift its trajectory away from Earth.
The Future of Space Monitoring
Astronomers will continue to monitor asteroid YR4 closely in the coming months. As new observations refine its trajectory, experts anticipate removing it from the list of potential threats. For now, the latest data offers reassurance — YR4 is likely just another space rock passing by, not a looming catastrophe.
Still, this event serves as a reminder of the importance of tracking near-Earth objects to safeguard our planet’s future.
